Teacher shortage – and no end?

Abstract

Based on the current assessment of teacher recruitment needs and supply in Germany presented by the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs of the Federal States, the article begins with a review of comparable forecasts and points out that these have not produced reliable results in general. Against this background, the article outlines the individual steps involved in such forecasts: the underlying population forecast and the resulting forecast of the development of pupil numbers, the determination of teacher and recruitment requirements and the estimation of the possibilities for meeting demand. The presentation of the individual work steps is accompanied by methodological criticism.